Weather-Based Prediction Model Finishes 29–25 as Experiment Explores Whether Summer Heat and Humidity Influence College Football Outcomes. 

LAKE JACKSON, Texas, November 9, 2026 — The SwampButt Underwear™  Scale of Sultry correctly predicted seven college football underdogs would win their Week 10 games outright, including Alabama’s 31–13 victory over LSU and Louisiana-Monroe’s surprising 19–17 victory over Arkansas State. The Scale of Sultry is an experiment designed by SwampButt Underwear to see if athletes conditioned in hot and humid environments outperform those from places where the weather is cooler and dryer.

The experimental weather-based model, which investigates whether teams from hotter, more humid summer environments possess a competitive conditioning advantage, correctly predicted 29 of 54 games recorded before kickoff, a success rate of 53.7%. The Scale of Sultry has correctly selected 359 winners in 683 college football games, a 52.6% success rate.

What the Scale of Sultry Measures and Why

The hypothesis is straightforward: teams accustomed to hotter, more humid summer conditions may have a conditioning advantage. The experiment asks how frequently the team from the sultrier preseason geography wins—and whether that relationship changes as game-day weather becomes cooler. The ‘scale does not use any other measure of performance or predictive outcomes. The data used is derived from the National Weather Service.  “My fervent belief is that since it is ‘harder’ work out in the heat, the athletes who do so are in better condition and that conditioning is a competitive advantage,” Nicoll said. “The challenge is proving it.”

Among the week’s successful predictions were:

• Alabama 31, LSU 13: The Scale picked Alabama despite LSU entering as the betting favorite.
• Louisiana-Monroe 19, Arkansas State 17: The Scale selected the Warhawks despite their approximately 14½-point underdog status.
• Georgia State 39, Appalachian State 23: Another successful selection of a road underdog.
• UCF 33, Kansas 32: The Knights delivered a narrow victory after receiving the Scale’s selection.
• Texas State 42, Oregon State 21: The Scale correctly anticipated another underdog victory.

Maryland’s 34–29 victory at Purdue and Penn State’s 28–25 victory at Washington completed the seven successful underdog selections.

Houston, Alabama and Arizona State Among Featured Winners

The Scale’s eight featured games finished with four correct selections and four misses.

It correctly predicted Houston’s 31–24 victory over Cincinnati, Alabama’s victory at LSU, Arizona State’s 20–10 win over Colorado and Texas’ 34–20 victory at Missouri. However, the model incorrectly picked Florida over Oklahoma, Texas A&M over South Carolina, Missouri State over Florida International and BYU over Utah.

What Does Summer Weather Have To Do With November Football?

The revised Scale of Sultry uses temperature and relative humidity recorded at each school’s location on August 15, 2026, to establish a fixed climate baseline.

The team with the higher baseline receives the model’s selection. Conditions at the stadium near kickoff provide additional information for investigating whether a possible climate-conditioning advantage changes as the weather becomes hotter or cooler.

The underlying hypothesis is that practicing and training in sultry environments may contribute to greater physical conditioning, potentially providing an advantage during competition. Week 10 illustrates both the possibilities and limitations of that theory.

More Than You Want to Know

The revised Scale of Sultry model finished above .500, but the original forecasting method achieved the same 29–25 record across their 54 shared games. The two methods made different selections in 20 contests, with each method correctly identifying 10 winners. The revised approach therefore has not yet demonstrated a predictive improvement over the original method.

The older forecasting system’s full 63-game Week 10 archive finished 33–30. Its season total, subject to confirmation of the original forecast cutoff time, calculates to 359–324, or 52.6%.

The hypothesis is straightforward: Teams accustomed to hotter, more humid summer conditions may have a conditioning advantage. The experiment asks how frequently the team from the sultrier preseason geography wins—and whether that relationship changes as game-day weather becomes cooler. “My fervent belief is that since it is ‘harder’ work out in the heat, the athletes who do so are in better condition and that conditioning is a competitive advantage,” Nicoll said. “The challenge is proving it.”

The results are encouraging enough to continue investigating, but they do not establish that climate conditioning caused any victory or that the Scale can outperform conventional football forecasting methods. “As a company that makes men’s underwear for guys who sweat a lot, especially from the waist down, playing football and sweating are synonymous,” Nicoll said. “Beyond that pretty obvious connection, heat, humidity, sweat and fatigue are of interest to men who work and/or workout in the heat more than most others. If we can find clues about positive or negative outcomes in places where the heat and humidity are prevalent, we can add those to the benefits of being associated with us (SwampButt Underwear).”

The Experiment Continues

As college football moves deeper into November, cooler stadium conditions offer opportunities to test whether the potential advantage associated with hotter summer climates is less important.

The Scale of Sultry will continue evaluating outright winners, climate differences and the relationship between game-day weather and college football performance.

View the Week 10 predictions and methodology: SwampButt Underwear Scale of Sultry

About SwampButt Underwear

SwampButt Underwear™ is a Lake Jackson, Texas-based company making moisture-wicking men’s underwear designed to help manage perspiration, uncomfortable dampness and visible sweat. The company developed its Scale of Sultry to demonstrate the effects of heat, humidity and environmental conditions on perspiration and physical comfort, and subsequently expanded the experiment into college football predictions.

College football is serious business. Sweaty underwear can be a bother, but it doesn’t have to be anymore.

SwampButt Underwear™ is a registered trademark in the United States and other countries. We paid a lot for it so please only use it with written permission.